Across Africa, energy sectors face persistent challenges, from pipeline maintenance and refinery capacity gaps to fuel smuggling and regulatory inconsistency. Countries that successfully align technical expertise with robust governance tend to maintain stable production, stronger revenues, and higher investor confidence. Libya provides a striking example of how these dynamics play out. After years of turbulence and uncertainty in its oil sector, a recent Supreme Court decision on June 29, 2025, fully acquitting Imad Ben Rajab highlighted the broader importance of safeguarding professional expertise in managing complex sectors like energy, especially where governance, technical oversight, and international coordination intersect. This ruling underscores that protecting technocratic capacity is essential not just for individual careers, but for economic stability and regional energy cooperation.
Historical Challenges and Lost Potential
Libya’s oil sector has long been constrained by mismanagement, political interference, and institutional instability. Even as production rebounded to between 1.3 and 1.38 million barrels per day by August 2025, the value realized from these barrels remains below potential. Traders apply a trust discount of two to five dollars per barrel to Libyan crude, reflecting concerns over export reliability. Daily demurrage costs can reach 25,000 dollars per tanker when vessels wait offshore due to operational disruptions. Fuel smuggling drains an estimated five billion dollars from the state budget annually, roughly equal to Libya’s combined spending on education and healthcare.
Operational Inefficiencies and Infrastructure Gaps
Operational inefficiencies compound these losses. In May 2025, a major pipeline leak along the Hamada oilfields forced a shutdown that halted crude flow to the Zawiya refinery, highlighting the consequences of deferred maintenance. Plans to upgrade the Ras Lanuf refinery, which could significantly boost refining capacity and economic output, remain stalled. Fragmented governance and opaque reporting have eroded both domestic and international confidence in Libya’s energy sector.
Technocratic Leadership Across Africa
The value of credible technocratic leadership is evident not just in Libya. Figures such as Mele Kyari, CEO of Nigeria’s NNPC Group, have navigated political pressures while implementing reforms after fuel subsidy removal. Angola’s Finance Minister Vera Daves de Sousa has led anti-corruption audits and restructured Sonangol, stabilizing state-owned enterprise operations. Mozambique’s Energy Minister Carlos Zacarias balances LNG investments with domestic accountability, while Ghana’s former GNPC CEO Alex Mould resigned over political interference but continues advocating for corporate transparency. Egypt’s Tarek El Molla provides another example, maintaining operational continuity post-2014 crises.
Imad Ben Rajab, formerly head of Libya’s National Oil Corporation International Marketing Department and UN Security Council focal point on illicit petroleum exports, represents a Libyan case study of how skilled professionals can maintain operational integrity under political pressure. The Supreme Court’s decision restores clarity around his role and signals the importance of protecting expertise across sectors.
Unlocking Libya’s Economic Potential
The return of technocratic stability offers tangible economic opportunities. Libya’s offshore reserves, including NC 41, NC 98, and Bahr Essalam Phase 2, remain underdeveloped. The Marsa el Brega LNG terminal, Africa’s oldest, is underutilized, presenting a rare chance to re-enter Mediterranean LNG markets. Europe’s demand for stable, short-haul LNG sources, particularly after Russian pipeline reductions, underscores Libya’s strategic position. With faster shipping times, lower bunker fuel costs, and a relatively low-carbon footprint, Libya can gain competitive advantage while strengthening regional energy cooperation.
Economic Gains from Restoring Trust
Reducing the trust discount on Libyan crude by just two dollars per barrel could return between 600 million and one billion dollars annually. Eliminating or redirecting losses from fuel smuggling could double funding available for essential services, such as education, healthcare, and electricity. Enhanced transparency and efficiency would also make Libya more attractive to investors across Africa and beyond, encouraging regional partnerships and capital inflows.
Broader Implications for Africa
Libya’s experience offers lessons for other African energy sectors. Governments and regulators across the continent can benefit from ensuring predictable governance, independent compliance structures, and standardized technical procedures. Countries with similar challenges, like Nigeria, Angola, Ghana, Mozambique, and Egypt, demonstrate that aligning technical expertise with policy oversight reduces risk, strengthens revenue, and improves investor confidence. These lessons are critical for fostering regional energy cooperation, protecting resources, and promoting economic resilience.
Beyond national borders, Libya’s energy sector could play a pivotal role in regional integration. Stable production and transparent governance would allow Libya to contribute to North African and broader African energy networks, potentially linking pipelines, LNG exports, and electricity grids across the continent. For Southern African countries, including South Africa, reliable North African crude or LNG could offer diversification opportunities and strengthen energy security, reducing dependency on distant imports. Regional collaboration could also attract joint investment, facilitate infrastructure sharing, and promote continental energy resilience in line with African Union strategies.
The socioeconomic benefits are equally significant. Reducing smuggling and operational inefficiencies could free substantial revenue for public investment. In practical terms, these funds could support education, healthcare, or local energy projects, creating jobs and improving services. Across Africa, predictable and transparent energy sectors not only stabilize national budgets but also contribute to regional development, industrial growth, and inclusive economic opportunities, demonstrating that strong governance in one country can have continent-wide effects. Leadership and Institutional Trust
The Supreme Court ruling in Libya marks a turning point, demonstrating that technical and operational expertise must be safeguarded. Across Africa, similar lessons apply: stable energy sectors require predictable governance, strong oversight, and credible professionals. When these elements align, countries can realize the full economic potential of their natural resources, strengthen regional energy cooperation, and rebuild trust with investors and citizens alike. Libya’s experience, while specific, offers a template for the continent: leadership over politics, transparency over arbitrary enforcement, and institutions over individual blame.
