On 8 March 2021, with gold trading at $ 1,690/oz (R31,074), I recommended investors buy and accumulate the metal. Readers can refer back to my posts on that date, and since then, to familiarise themselves with what has become a long-standing and personally defining recommendation.
The Case for Gold’s Ascent
A thoughtful question was recently asked of me by a Middle East–based institutional private credit fund manager: “Could a slew of trade agreements trigger a sharp pullback in the gold price?”
While I acknowledge the potential for short-term price fluctuations, I remain confident that the structural drivers supporting gold’s long-term ascent remain firmly intact.
Since that original recommendation, gold has moved materially higher. The $3,000 (R55,161) price target reached in early 2025 was upgraded to $5,000 (R91,935) on 26 February 2025, with a 12-month horizon.
Do I expect volatility? Certainly, a 5 – 8% correction is part of any healthy trend. But I do not anticipate a crash, even amid trade accords.
The Broader Macro Context
To fully appreciate this view, one must consider the broader macro framework. In January 2016, I published “The USA – Major Themes 2015–2033”, arguing that this period would echo the historic transformation of 1895–1913, a time of seismic shifts in industry, finance, geopolitics, and technology.
Consider the parallels:
In both eras, gold plays a stabilising role, not speculative, but a pillar of trust and monetary credibility.
Today:
Trade breakthroughs may soften headlines, but they don’t cure structural excess, fiscal fragility, or currency erosion. They reconfigure, not resolve.
Why Gold Remains Essential
Gold remains essential: a portfolio cornerstone, and a hedge, not just against inflation or conflict, but against systemic dysfunction, volatility, and monetary decline.
That’s why my forecast stands: $5,000 (R91,935) within 12 months (from 26 Feb 2025).
This isn’t merely a price call – it’s a thesis shaped since March 2021, rooted in macro history, geopolitics, and structural insight.
The path to $ 5,000 (R91,935) is open. Who’s positioned for it?
What’s your take on gold’s trajectory? Do you see $ 5,000 (R91,935) as realistic or too ambitious? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
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